Can you find the jet stream in this satellite image from today? I'll give you a hint.. Its the giant curved cloud...
Starting on Thursday, June 26, Ohio is under at least a slight risk of convective thunderstorms. Thursday's outlook states that we will be under a "slight" risk. The day is expected to produce severe weather across most of the Central and Midwestern US.
Lately, we've had a lot of thunderstorms, so I figured I would share some pictures I had taken of them.
This is a picture of a gust front we had come through Ashtabula, OH on June 21, 2008. I was at an open house and saw this. I told my friend, "Its about to get real windy", and sure enough, in about a minute, we had 20-30 mile per hour winds!
This is a view of the same gust front in Ashtabula, OH on June 21, but seen as it passed overhead.
Some low clouds I saw today (June 23, 2008) in Youngstown, OH. There were some pretty strong storms all across Ohio, but (to the best of my knowledge) none of them were tornadic.
The same low clouds in Youngstown, with a wider field of view.
More thunderstorms are on their way across Ohio as I type this (6-23-08 3:30 PM EST). Several of the isolated cells have been severe thunderstorm warned, although it doesn't appear that anything is spinning yet. We've got enough wind shear for some of these cells to become organized, but the region's low to moderate instability is not seeming to really kick these into high gear yet. Either way, most of Ohio is going to get some rain.
Currently in Youngstown, we are under a severe thunderstorm watch, as is a good portion of Ohio. Akron is currently tornado warned, after Cleveland radar picked up a tornado vortex signature. I would expect this to be upgraded within the next few hours, as indicated by this mesoscale discussion from the SPC:
Expect some severe weather today, with chances of hail and high, possibly damaging winds. I'll try to post some pictures/video later tonight.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1524
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...OH INTO FAR SERN IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593...
VALID 221924Z - 222100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593 CONTINUES.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS AS OF 1915Z WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED ZONE OF ACTIVITY FOCUSED WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM NEAR CAK WWD TO SE OF FDY. 18Z ILN SOUNDING IS REPRESENTATIVE OF AMBIENT INFLOW ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE... CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.
Today (June 20, 2008) was the first official day of Summer in 2008. Officially speaking, Summer begins on the day that the sun is the farthest North in the sky. The following are the days surrounding this event.
According the the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center (SPC), Ohio will be under a slight risk of severe thunderstorm activity during June 21, 2008. Shown below is the current (as of 6-20-08 0800Z) SPC Day 2 convective outlook.
AFOREMENTIONED REINFORCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY. A ROUGHLY WEST-EAST ORIENTED AXIS OF 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE CORN BELT/MIDDLE MO VALLEY AREAS. RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF 1500-2000 J/KG...ALONG WITH LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH VERTICAL SHEAR AROUND 30 KT /0-6 KM/...SUGGEST MAINLY MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
According to the SPC mesoscale discussion #1416, there is the potential for severe weather to occur in the extreme Eastern end of Ohio. Most of the activity should occur in Pennsylvania and New York, but Eastern Ohio may see scattered cells popping up this afternoon. Text from MD #1416:
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER PARTS OF WESTERN NY/PA BEFORE 17Z...THEN DEVELOP EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG HEATING OCCURRING OVER WESTERN NY/PA...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE 70S. MODIFIED 12Z BUF SOUNDING SUGGESTS AIRMASS IS VIRTUALLY UNCAPPED ALREADY...WITH FURTHER HEATING ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RELATIVELY SOON AS NOSE OF MID LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS AREA AND CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS ALONG COLD FRONT AND LAKE BREEZES. MUCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD RATHER STRONG UPDRAFTS AND THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. ALSO...SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ALOFT...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL PROMOTE DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS IN STRONGER CELLS.In plain English, this means that afternoon heating will cause the air to become unstable. That is, the air near the ground will become warm, while the air aloft will stay relatively cool. This will make the warmer air want to rise, and create updrafts, which lead to storm development. Those in the affected areas should monitor their local news stations and/or weather radios.
This upcoming week (June 15-21) is forecast to be much cooler than last week. Friday, June 20, looks to be the warmest day, with a high of only 76* F. Temps will be in the 60*'s all week. Although it might seem a little cool, it might be nice after a week of record highs. It is also forecast that there will be a good bit of rain all week.
Columbus is currently (6-12-08 6:45PM) experiencing an isolated thunderstorm. This thunderstorm has been warned as a severe thunderstorm, and according to the radar, is producing small hail. Looks like a decent isolated cell so far. We'll see where it goes, and if we get anything here in Youngstown. Funny, I'm almost tempted to drive West a bit...
Base reflectivity, 0.5 * elevation angle radar image over Columbus, Ohio, 6-12-08.The National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued this convective outlook for Friday June 12, 2008. This convective outlook depicts the possibility of severe thunderstorms. As you can see below, most of the Midwest and Ohio are included in the "SLGT" region, meaning there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms, including heavy rain and hail.
SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. Valid 6-13 1200Z to 6-14 1200ZLARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SUSTAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED MCS FROM SERN KS INTO WRN MO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 30 KT MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE MAINTAINED ENEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AS STRONG DIFFLUENCE...ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET MAX... SPREADS FROM SRN MO NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY.Current forecasts are calling for a 15-30% probability of severe thunderstorms.
As I'm writing this, at about 11 PM on June 9, another system of storms is approaching Youngstown, and is already rolling through most of northern Ohio. They aren't currently forecasted to be severe, so these mainly linear storms shouldn't be a problem other than some potential heavy rainfall. They are quite impressive looking though, as you can see in the following image of the storms as of approximately 9:45 PM.
Well that's odd... Weather Underground says it's overloaded.
Must be all the people watching archived radar of yesterdays storms!
Here in Youngstown, we've experienced a pretty sudden heat wave. Summer just showed up real quick. Its currently a record-breaking 89.1* F, and projected to be up to 92* F today. The old record was 88* F in 1952. Cities all over Ohio are just as hot, with several cities already reporting temperatures in the lower 90's. This sudden heat is due to the warm front that caused yesterday's severe weather in the Plains. With the heat and humidity this high, expect a few isolated storms to pop up this evening.
All around the central and midwest US, severe weather has been prevalent the last few days. It looks like the last few days have just been a primer, however. The National Weather Service (NWS) convective outlook below shows a high or medium risk for severe weather over a large portion of the continental US. An intense low pressure in Kansas, coupled with several fronts is going to result in some very significant storms if everything pans out. Look for supercells in the plains and severe linear storms as far east as northwestern Ohio.
Another wave of thunderstorms might be on its way for today, June 5, 2008. These thunderstorms will possibly be entering the Ohio area this evening, and could potentially be severe. As I'm writing this, they are moving through Michigan. The forecast currently only calls for a 40% chance, although some areas in northern Ohio are more likely.
So after seeing some storms approaching on radar, Wednesday turned out to be, so far, completely uneventful in Youngstown. Not even so much as a hard rain. In other sections of the state, however, the opposite is true. The lower half of the state got some pretty major storms, with regions near Cincinnati and northern Kentucky receiving tornado warnings. Currently, I have not found any images of this storm, but I will post if I do. According to a tornado report from Hamilton county:
Hamilton County and Newtown police reporting a tornado touchdown with witnesses in Newtown...presently unconfirmed. Numerous trees were twisted and downed...Also, in Athens county:
Public report of a possible tornado along Baker Road near Albany. Report is uncomfirmed at this time.A tornado vortex signature was also detected in Greenup county, KY, just south of the Ohio border.
We've got some decent looking storms moving into the area today. The forecast calls for potential severe weather, so we'll see what it brings.
Welcome to the Ohio Weather Blog!
Here you'll be able to find info and news on Ohio weather phenomenon, including severe and inclement weather. Actually, this will probably be the primary concern of this site. I will soon be attaining a HAM license to operate on VHF/UHF and joining both the Ashtabula and Mahoning county Skywarn programs. Should be lots of fun! Join me and guest writers as we watch the skies over Ohio!
